Huntington Should Shop for Rule 5 Bargains

Kei Igawa - Larry Coor/Flickr.com

Che Huntington has proven interested in (and capable of evaluating) bargain-priced talent. Last winter, his first on the job, Huntington added to the Pirates' depth chart Phil Dumatrait, a former No. 1 draft pick of the Boston Red Sox off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds; Jimmy Barthmaier, a top prospect in the Houston Astros' system waived after a dysmal season; and Evan Meek, a young reliever with "stuff" exposed to the Rule 5 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays.

Dumatrait, a left-handed starting pitcher, finished 2008 with a 5.26 ERA in 78.2 innings (21 games, 11 starts). He threw especially well in the early going, posting a 3.92 ERA in 10 April contests while pitching in long relief and a 3.27 ERA in six May starts. Dumatrait's stats ballooned in June and July but could have been negatively affected by injury, as he was shut down mid-season with bursitis in his left shoulder. (He underwent surgery on August 8.)

Barthmaier, 24, was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 4 prospect in Houston's organization entering the 2006 and 2007 seasons. After pitching poorly for Double-A Corpus Christi in '07, he was waived by the Astros and claimed by the Pirates last November. He started slowly at Altoona (10 GS, 4.86 ERA, 1.36 ERA) but came on strong with Indianapolis (in 79 IP: 16 GS, 3-1, 3.53 ERA, 71 K, 27 BB). In doing so, Barthmaier earned his first big league cup of coffee and figures into the rotation mix in spring training.

Meek disappointed in a mop-up role in Pittsburgh but thrived after a trade with the Rays allowed Huntington to demote the reliever to Altoona. After excelling with the Curve (in 16 IP: 2.81 ERA, 17 K, 3 BB), he was promoted to the Triple-A Indians and continued to throw well (in 41.1 IP: 2.40 ERA, 34 K, 14 BB).

All three players were acquired on the cheap, and all three players have a chance to produce at better than replacement level for several years. It's these types of no-risk, not-negligible-reward transactions with which Huntington will need to supplement modest trades and free agent signings in building a perennial contender in Pittsburgh. As the Rule 5 draft approaches next week, expect the Pirates to clear space on the 40-man roster with the goal of finding another diamond in the rough.

While the edges of the Pirates' roster are still blurry (team needs might not be known), and despite others (such as Marc Hulet, Charlie and WTM) having written well on the topic, I figured I'd spotlight a handful of interesting players who may be worth a roll of the dice.

KEI IGAWA, LHP, NYY
2008: 156.1 IP, 14-6, 3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP at Triple-A Scranton
Why he'd work: Veteran innings eater
Why he wouldn't: Cost

Igawa has been an unmitigated disaster at the major-league level for the New York Yankees after signing a five-year, $20 million contract prior to the 2007 season. (The Yankees also paid a $26 million posting fee for the right to negotiate with him.)  Igawa was removed from the 40-man roster after clearing waivers in July of this season.  The 29-year-old is owed $4 million for each of the next three years.

However, at the Triple-A level, Igawa has pitched surprisingly well.  While he could be acquired via different means (i.e. a low-profile trade), Igawa might make for an interesting Rule 5 selection:

  • Out of the big city spotlight, Asian players who flopped initially in America have gone on to achieve success in Major League Baseball's more modest markets.  Consider Kaz Matsui, a second baseman who never posted an OPS+ over 88 with the New York Mets: He recovered to become a league-average player with the Rockies and Astros between 2006-2008.  In Pittsburgh, Igawa would be pitching on the senior circuit under less scrutiny.
  • The Pirates have made public relations inroads to Asian markets, first targeting declining legend Masumi Kuwata out of Japan, and more recently signing two Indian pitching prospects.  Huntington has been forthright in explaining the Pirates' desire to draw from new talent pools.  Acquiring a foreign star such as Igawa could give the Pirates more credibility in Japan going forward.
  • Finally, Huntington highlighted starting pitching on his offseason wish list: "We'd like to try to add a veteran pitcher at the right cost to help these other guys mature. We understand that there are all different kinds of ways to give instruction, but sometimes the player-on-player way is best," he said.  Igawa does not speak fluent English, but he did throw four ace-caliber seasons in Japan.  The $12 million left on his contract is tiny relative to market demands.
In a worst-case scenario, the Pirates allow Igawa to audition for his roster spot in spring training and offer him back to the Yankees if he doesn't earn his keep.  Brian Cashman declines that option, and Igawa provides veteran, Quad-A insurance at Indianapolis for a little more than what the Pirates paid Matt Morris to sit at home last year.

In a best-case scenario, Igawa pitches as we expected Zach Duke to, and the Pirates find a competent No. 4 starter whose salary falls well within their budget.

EDUARDO MORLAN, RHP, TB
2008: 47 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45 K, 15 BB at Double-A Montgomery
Why he'd work: Fits Che's RP profile
Why he wouldn't: Off the board

Morlan has been championed as the de facto stud of this year's Rule 5 class, and so while he would be an ideal fit for the Pirates' bullpen, he may not be available when Huntington makes his selection.  The Pirates draft fourth, behind the Nationals, Mariners and Padres. It is also commonplace for GMs to execute draft-day trades in which an organization with an interest in a specific player sends cash to a team willing to give up its higher draft slot.

In The Baseball Prospect Book 2008, John Sickels wrote of Morlan:  "Assuming good health down the line, and assuming that his command doesn't go backwards, [he] should see the major leagues late in 2008 or in 2009, and he has a chance to be a closer in the Show eventually." He throws hard and he throws strikes, and that's just how the Pirates' new regime likes their relief pitchers. 

Lots of blogs have pined away for Morlan this hot stove season.  For an exhaustive list of those posts, I'll direct you to this Google blog search.  Suffice it to say that I'd have no problem should Huntington add Morlan to his bullpen mix.

BRAD KILBY, RP, OAK
2008: 70 IP, 7-2, 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 66 K, 26 BB at Triple-A Sacramento
Why he'd work: Strong left-handed relief
Why he wouldn't: Numbers crunch

Said Sickels of Kilby prior to the 2008 season: "He's zipped through the minors due to a good slider and deceptive delivery. ... He's quite tough on lefties, and when his command is on he can dominate them.  I like his K/IP ratios, and he could get a shot in the LOOGY role very soon."

As with Morlan, Kilby would seem to fit well with the Pirates' bullpen.  There are questions, though:

  • Kilby doesn't have the velocity that Huntington usually looks for in a reliever.  Sickels describes his fastball as "mediocre."
  • In John Grabow and Sean Burnett, the Pirates have two of presumably seven relief spots filled for 2009.  Keeping Kilby on the 25-man roster for a year would mean that only three righties would be left in front of Matt Capps.  Also, Phil Dumatrait and Zach Duke will be pitching for jobs this spring:  Either could end up throwing long relief.
Drafting Kilby and trading Grabow for a prospect or two would be an acceptable move for a developing team, in my opinion.  It's not likely that Kilby would embarass himself, but his ceiling isn't terribly high, either.  It's worth noting that while Kilby is tough on lefties, he's been solid against right-handed batters, too.

WILLIAM RHYMES, 2B, DET
2008: 516 at-bats, .306/.362/.391, 17 SB, 6 CS at Double-A Erie
Why he'd work: On-base skills
Why he wouldn't: Lack of versatility

Freddy Sanchez won't play forever, and yet the Pirates' depth chart at second base isn't particularly strong.  Shelby Ford and Jim Negyrch seem to be his most likely successors, but neither has played above Double-A, and neither player's game spans all five tools.

Rhymes is similarly incomplete.  To the Pirates, he'd simply represent another lottery ticket -- one more chance to get lucky on an up-and-coming youngster.  He performed well in the AFL this year, but his minor-league track record shows that he's one-dimensional.  Still, his primary skill -- plate discipline -- is a valuable one, and it seems as if he has enough speed to keep defenders honest, too.

Rhymes' downfall is his lack of defensive versatility.  He made four errors in 16 appearances at shortstop in 2008, and 95 percent of his minor-league time has been spent at second.  It would be difficult, if not impossible, to hide Rhymes on a 25-man roster in 2009 if he weren't capable of covering at least the middle infield positions competently.

JORDAN BROWN, 1B/OF, CLE
2008: 420 at-bats, .281/.337/.417 at Triple-A Buffalo
Why he'd work: Potential platoon partner
Why he wouldn't: Not a team need

"According to sources, ... Adam LaRoche already [has] been part of trade talks" this winter, and if the Pirates were to need a replacement first baseman, they could certainly do worse than Jordan Brown.

Brown, 24, likely would have been protected by the Indians if he had produced at Buffalo the .905 OPS he did in Double-A in 2007.  For the first time in his minor-league career, Brown showed a drastic, usable platoon split: He hit .319/.372/.486 against right-handed pitchers and just .205/.269/.281 against southpaws.  (By comparison, in his brief big league career, Steve Pearce has a .991 OPS against LHP and a .643 OPS against RHP.)

A Brown/Pearce platoon could prove productive at first base or a corner outfield spot.  Nevertheless, that playing time might not be available if the Pirates hold onto LaRoche.
More Pirates Talk

Discussion

6 Comments on "Huntington Should Shop for Rule 5 Bargains"

#1

user-pic

Posted by Alan Smodic, December 1, 2008 12:22 PM

Igawa is interesting. It's worth noting, though I think Che will pick up a couple of starts off the scrap heap for Spring Training, as usual.

However, I do love Eduardo Morlan. If he is available, I'd be shocked if Che doesn't select him. He just fits the mold perfectly.

Reply

#2

user-pic

Posted by Tim Daloisio, December 1, 2008 2:42 PM

Viva Le Revolution! Off to a good start...looking forward to learning a little more about those pesky Pirates ;)

Reply

#3

user-pic

Posted by Jesse Behr, December 1, 2008 10:20 PM

Hey, I love the site! Thanks for adding my site in your blog roll, and lets hope the Pirates will be victorious in their revolution! Keep up the good work.

http://theburghblues.mlblogs.com/

Reply

#4

user-pic

Posted by Tommy Rancel, December 2, 2008 8:49 AM

Morlan had shoulder problems in 2008 so that explains his velocity dip and the so-so numbers. I'd hate for the Rays to lose him.

Reply

#5

user-pic

Posted by Cory Humes in reply to comment from Tommy Rancel, December 2, 2008 10:32 AM

Given all the hype around Morlan, Tommy, you'd have to believe he's as good as gone, wouldn't you? I could see one or two teams like the Pirates passing, but someone in MLB will take a chance on a high-upside reliever.

Reply

#6

user-pic

Posted by Brian Cartwright, December 2, 2008 6:19 PM

I'm disappointed Romak was left of the 40. My projections have himat least as good in total productivity as anyone the Pirates have under contract, except for maybe Pedro Alvarez. I know that's not good competition, but let's not give him away.

MLB avg wOBA for corner of is .347, for 1b is .357. My 2009 projection for Romak is .350. His last 3 single seasons, without regression, have been .365, .376, .367.

Romsk should be able to hit .250 or so with 25-30 HRs, above ag walks and lots of K's. Think Jose Bautista, but with twice the homers. Or Adam Dunn with a third fewer walks.

Is Igawa available in the Rule 5 draft? He has 2 years service in the US, signed after age 18, so would have 2 more years.

Reply

Leave a comment